The satellite market is predicted to grow sevenfold over the next ten years, according to a new report.
Goldman Sachs predicts its base-case forecast could see the satellite market grow to $108 billion by 2035, up from the current $15 billion.
In the most conservative estimate, Goldman predicts the market could still reach $77bn by 2035, representing a five-fold increase. In the most optimistic scenario, the market could grow to be worth as much as $457 billion in that same period, amounting to a near 3,000 percent increase.
Much of this growth will come from lower launch costs combined with more and higher capacity Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites, which will be increasingly integrated with other existing networks.
Allen Chang, head of Goldman’s Greater China Technology Research team, said: “We think there is good potential for LEO satellites to become a mainstream technology, affecting traditional telecom companies both negatively and positively.”
Goldman estimates current LEO satellite revenues total around $11 billion today, but could reach more than $65 billion by 2035, driven largely by broadband, mobile, and automotive services.
While LEO services can’t offer the same bandwith as fixed broadband or terrestrial 5G, it can offer services in remote areas terrestrial infrastructure can’t reach.
“We expect the ultimate mainstream use case for satellite internet technology to be the upcoming 6G communications,” said Chang.
SpaceX’s Starlink is the largest player in LEO, offering services from thousands of in-orbit machines directly to consumers but also partnering with a number of telecom firms and communications providers. OneWeb, however, doesn’t offer direct-to-consumer services.
Amazon’s upcoming Kuiper network, which is currently being deployed, has announced several deals with telecoms firms to date.
There are numerous smaller players, including the likes of AST Spacemobile and Lynk, offering direct-to-device services to telecoms firms.
Goldman Sachs also noted that Chinese firms are very active in the space. Global satellite operators have submitted or announced plans for some 70,000 satellites in LEO, which are due to launch in 2025-2031. Goldman noted that at least three Chinese operators have submitted applications for mega-constellations of more than 10,000 satellites.
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