The International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected that operational renewable capacity will increase to 5.5TW by 2030.
In its latest annual renewables market report, the agency said that figure represents a growth factor of 2.7, but falls just short of the goal to triple capacity set out during the COP28 summit.
The report's findings imply that global renewable capacity additions will continue to increase yearly, reaching almost 940GW annually by 2030, with solar and wind accounting for 95 percent of that growth. New solar capacity added during the remainder of the decade is expected to account for 80 percent of the sector's growth.
As a result, solar PV is set to become the largest renewable source, surpassing both wind and hydropower, the latter of which is currently the largest renewable generation source by far.
Despite increased policy support, hydrogen is expected to be a negligible driver for new renewable capacity growth, with hydrogen produced from renewable energy set to account for just 4 percent of total hydrogen production in 2030.
China is expected to cement its position as the global leader in renewable energy, with 60 percent of the projected expansion within the country. The EU and the US are forecast to double the pace of renewable capacity growth between 2024 and 2030, driven by regulatory changes such as the Inflation Reduction Act in the US and a renewed commitment in the EU for competitive renewable auctions and power purchase agreements.
China is, however, still building out a large number of coal plants, starting construction on more than 41GW of new generation capacity this year alone; 47.4GW of coal power came online in the republic last year.
India is projected to have the fastest growth rate in developing countries, driven by the rapid expansion of auctions and support schemes for companies wishing to develop urban renewable projects such as rooftop solar.
According to the IEA, China, Europe, India, and the United States will collectively provide 80 percent of the total installed renewable capacity worldwide by 2030.
To achieve the tripling capacity set out in COP28, the IEA argues that measures to reduce risks, including creating stable policy environments with clear long-term targets, can help unlock additional capacity, especially within developing countries.
The major bottlenecks to renewable integration are lagging grid infrastructure and system integration of renewable energy. Investment into grid infrastructure is severely lagging worldwide, with at least 1.65TW renewable capacity currently in advanced stages of development and waiting for a grid connection, a 150GW increase year-on-year.
Curtailment could become a growing challenge in countries where grid investments and system integration measures are not keeping pace with rapid deployment. In Chile, Ireland, and the United Kingdom, for example, the curtailment of wind and solar PV recently reached between five percent and 15 percent.
However, measures to clean up grid queues for projects at the early stages of development have improved, with projects either moving forward or dropping out of the queue due to lack of progress.
Another potential bottleneck is in the manufacturing sector, with solar PV manufacturers scaling back investment plans due to a deepening supply glut and record-low prices. This leads to the risk of smaller manufacturers being exposed to bankruptcy risks.
Comparatively, the IEA says the wind turbine sector is in dire need of further investment to avoid potential supply chain issues by 2030. For offshore wind projects, supply chain bottlenecks could delay the rollout of offshore wind in EU member states, which are pursuing ambitious 2030 offshore wind goals.