After years of efficiency improvements and the shift to cloud keeping data center power usage relatively stable, the industry is set to see its consumption soar.

A Congressionally-mandated Department of Energy (DOE) report on the power consumption of data centers in the US found that they use about 4.4 percent of the nation's power in 2023.

That could increase to as much as 12 percent of US power by 2028, while low-end projections put it at 6.7 percent.

The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory report builds on a similar study in 2016, and an earlier 2007 report.

The researchers, including LBNL's Arman Shehabi, found that data center energy use remained fairly stable between 2014–2016 at about 60TWh. As AI servers began to be used at some scale in the data center, the industry consumed about 76TWh in 2018, representing 1.9 percent of total US electricity consumption.

With AI deployments continuing to increase, US data center energy grew at an increasing rate, hitting 176TWh by 2023, representing 4.4 percent of total US electricity consumption.

After this point, we move into prediction territory. Based on construction data, GPU shipment forecasts, cooling technology types, and other factors, the researchers outlined a range of consumption scenarios for 2028 - with the low and high end representing about 325 and 580TWh in 2028.

Electricity consumption of US data centers is currently growing at an accelerating rate. The report found a compound annual growth rate of approximately seven percent from 2014 to 2018, increasing to 18 percent between 2018 and 2023, and then ranging from 13-27 percent between 2023 and 2028.

However, LBNL notes that its view of current data center power consumption is based on estimates due to lack of transparency in the sector, and that its predictions are equally based on limited data. It also found that 2018 data center power usage was higher than any scenario predicted in its 2016 report, as it failed to predict the growth of AI servers.

"The recent rapid growth in accelerated servers has caused current total data center energy demand to more than double between 2017 and 2023, and continued growth in the use of accelerated servers for AI services could cause further substantial increases by the end of this decade," the report states.

It adds: "When looking beyond 2028, the current surge in data center electricity demand should be put in the context of the much larger electricity demand expected over the next few decades from a combination of electric vehicle adoption, onshoring of manufacturing, hydrogen utilization, and the electrification of industry and buildings.

"Research initiatives are needed not just to identify strategies to meet data centers’ future energy needs but also to help stakeholders use this relatively near-term electricity demand for data centers as an opportunity to develop the leadership and a foundation for an economy-wide electricity infrastructure expansion."

Other studies have suggested even more data center power usage, which could still happen, the report warns: "We should not dismiss these projections out of hand, as the most extreme cases would constitute a significant stress on electrical infrastructure."

As for water usage, data centers consumed 21.2 billion liters of water in 2014. That hit 66bn in 2023, with 84 percent of that going to hyperscale data centers. Hyperscalers alone are expected to consume between 60 and 124 billion liters in 2028.