Moody’s Ratings has predicted at least $3 trillion in global data center investment over the next five years.

In its 2026 data center outlook report, the ratings agency said this level of investment is required to keep pace with AI capacity growth driven by hyperscaler investment.

Moody’s noted that spending by six US hyperscalers - Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Oracle, Meta, and CoreWeave - hit nearly $400 billion in 2025, and is expected to grow by another $200 billion in the next two years.

In order to finance this $3 trillion figure, capital markets are adapting to rapid hyperscale data center growth. Moody’s said that the amount and diversification of development capital needed have increased, with institutional investors now joining banks in lending during the construction phase.

A recent report from JLL predicted the same $3 trillion figure, forecasting 100GW of new data centers to be added between now and 2030, doubling global capacity, and requiring significant investment. Other research from firms such as Omdia has provided more conservative estimates.

In its report, Moody's said that the race to build new data center capacity is still nascent, with double-digit capacity growth to continue. The majority of new capacity is already pre-leased to hyperscalers, which the report said limits the risk of introducing surplus unoccupied capacity into the market.

However, Moody’s noted that this pre-leasing is increasing counterparty concentration risk.

The report also explored a shift in tenants taking on construction delivery risk that they have historically avoided in order to facilitate expedited completion times. For example, by exempting power and essential utilities availability from completion requirements. Moody’s said that these risk allocation changes during construction are helping to balance accelerated delivery risks.

Other risks included a significant rise in local opposition to new data centers, as the public becomes increasingly concerned about data center power and water consumption. In many of these jurisdictions, power grid limitations are already constraining new development. These issues are being seen in most regions. Though this is counterweighted by regions with supportive regulatory and legal frameworks, which are encouraging new data center development, especially for AI.

There are also compounding issues in rising costs, such as construction equipment and GPUs. Miners and manufacturers are ramping up production to meet demand, but Moody's said that additional production will remain insufficient to moderate 2026 price increases. This will cause newer data centers to cost more and increase tenant lease rates, the report said.

In these circumstances, and despite construction delays, tenants are accepting facilities when they are available, rather than “exercising their often heavy-handed rights in their lease,” Moody’s noted.

“This could change once market supply and demand are more in balance, which we do not expect for several years in most markets.”

However, Moody’s said it expects more operational problems to be reported over time, due to the “sheer increase in the number of data centers and the expanding ranks of newer, less experienced operators in the market.”