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Hyper-connected world is at risk from critical systems failure

Sabotage, espionage, subversion – cascading failure could undermine global governance

11 January 2012 by Ambrose McNevin - DatacenterDynamics

     

Critical systems failure tops concerns in the technological category as identified in the top 50 threats to global development according to the Global Risks 2012 report from the World Economic Forum.

The Technological Risk Category identifies the Dark Side of Connectivity with critical systems failure at the ‘Centre of Gravity’. Respondents consider the risk ‘that a single vulnerability could trigger cascading failure of critical infrastructures and networks’ as low likelihood but high impact ‘a combination typical of events that catch humanity off guard.’

In the worst case, risks associated with cybercrime and systems disruption could amplify traditional security concerns such as the breakdown of diplomatic conflict resolution and terrorism. This cascade could eventually undermine global governance.

Cyber Attacks are identified as the top technological risk which could lead to critical systems failure, along with massive incident of data fraud or theft, mineral resource supply vulnerability and massive digital disinformation.

Risk Categories

The Risk report lists five global risk categories: Economic, Environmental, Geopolitical, Societal and Technological, each with an identified centre of gravity of the greatest systemic importance. Critical  connectors link the different categories.  
Of the Technological risk, the report says: ‘Critical systems failure shares important interconnections with risks from all five categories. It is most strongly associated with cyber attacks and three economic risks: prolonged infrastructure neglect, unforeseen negative consequences of regulation and major system financial failure.’
Another critical connector for technological risk is extreme volatility in energy prices.
It says: ‘The impacts of crime, terrorism and war in the virtual world have yet to equal that of the physical world but there is a fear that this could change…Online security is now considered a public good, implying an urgent need to encourage greater private sector engagement to reduce the vulnerability of key information technology systems.’

With cyber attacks listed under the headings of Sabotage, Espionage and Subversion the report notes that ‘national critical infrastructures are increasingly connected to the Internet, often using bandwidth leased from private companies, outside of government protection and oversight.’

The report poses two questions for stakeholders: ‘What steps can be taken to improve the sharing of information and to construct appropriate safeguards to reduce cyber threats in the coming decade? And what incentives will effectively mobilise business businesses and the public sector to invest in the resilience of critical information infrastructures?’

The 2012 report is the 7th edition. The survey sampled the views of 467 experts on global risk from business, government, NGOs, Academia and international organisations.
The World Economic Forum takes place in Davos, Switzerland from January 25th to 29th 2012.

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